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Bracket Analytics
Historical upset probability analysis based on 10+ years of tournament data
Avg Confidence
21.3%
Across your picks
High-Risk Picks
0
Upset probability >40%
Analysis Depth
10 Yrs
Historical data
Historical Seed Matchup Performance
- Favorite Win Rate
- Upset Probability
Upset Rate vs Score Differential Trend
- Upset Rate (%)
- Avg Score Differential
Your Picks Risk Assessment
Duke vs UNC-Wilmington
Seed: 1v16 • No pick yet
4%
Lower Risk
Baylor vs Drake
Seed: 8v9 • No pick yet
31%
Lower Risk
Iowa State vs Creighton
Seed: 5v12 • No pick yet
36%
Lower Risk
Auburn vs Morehead State
Seed: 4v13 • No pick yet
12%
Lower Risk
Kansas vs Providence
Seed: 6v11 • No pick yet
36%
Lower Risk
Marquette vs Vermont
Seed: 3v14 • No pick yet
10%
Lower Risk
UCLA vs Dayton
Seed: 7v10 • No pick yet
34%
Lower Risk
North Carolina vs UT Rio Grande Valley
Seed: 2v15 • No pick yet
8%
Lower Risk
Key Historical Insights
- •4-5 matchups: 48.6% upset rate - one of the most unpredictable slots
- •1-16 matchups: Only 4.3% upset rate - 1 seeds favor heavily favored
- •Double-digit seeds: 8-9 matchups are most competitive in early rounds
- •Close seeds: Matchups within 1-2 seeds have 30-50% upset rates
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