One Week Out: Trump Fights to Hold Congress as Democrats Ride a 9-Point Generic Ballot Lead Into the Midterms

With one week left before the November 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump is campaigning hard to keep Republican majorities in the House and Senate. Polls and forecast models show the political ground tilting toward Democrats.

Trump's final push

Trump is not on the ballot, but the midterms have become a referendum on his second term. He says he will have spent about $400 million backing Republican candidates this cycle, according to The Guardian. He is holding rallies in battleground states and arguing that a Democratic Congress would bring investigations and gridlock.

His approval rating is the biggest problem Republicans face. The Washington Post reported that Trump's approval hit a record low this month, giving Democrats "a clear midterm edge." Nate Silver's average shows his net approval at about -23 points.

The Democratic message: affordability

Democrats are focusing on prices, gas costs and the economic fallout from the conflict with Iran. They are also casting the race as a check on the administration. Party leaders and former President Barack Obama are on the trail to drive turnout.

The Republican message: stay the course

Republicans are running on border security and tax cuts. They warn that a Democratic House would open new investigations and possibly an impeachment effort. Some GOP candidates in swing districts are keeping their distance from the president. Others are embracing his endorsement to turn out the base.

The numbers

• Generic ballot: Democrats 51.6%, Republicans 42.1%, a 9.5-point lead (Silver Bulletin average).
• House: about a 95% chance of Democratic control in Silver's model.
• Senate: about a 75% chance of Democratic control. Democrats need a net gain of four seats because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties.

Republican redistricting has made the House map tougher for Democrats. Analysts estimate Democrats need to win the national vote by roughly four points to be favored for a majority, and they are currently well above that.

Senate races to watch

• Michigan (open): Democrat Abdul El-Sayed vs. Republican Mike Rogers. Polls show a close race.
• New Hampshire (open): Democrat Chris Pappas vs. Republican John Sununu.
• Maine: Democrats lead by only two to three points in a Republican-held seat.
• Reach states: Democrats hold narrow poll leads in Republican-leaning Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio.
• Ratings shifts: The Cook Political Report moved South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats and Minnesota toward Republicans.

What happens next

If Democrats win either chamber, they could block Trump's legislative agenda and launch oversight investigations. Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera expect investigations but consider another impeachment unlikely. Results may take time: Republicans are less likely to vote by mail, so early returns in some states could favor the GOP before later-counted ballots narrow or reverse their leads.

Outlook

Democrats go into the final week as clear favorites for the House and solid favorites for the Senate. Republicans are counting on Trump's turnout operation, heavy spending and a late shift on the economy to limit losses. Turnout will decide it.

Sources: The Washington Post, Al Jazeera, The Conversation/Silver Bulletin, The Guardian, Cook Political Report. Forecasts are probabilities, not predictions of the outcome.